Trent Share Price Drops After Nuvama Downgrade on Slower Growth Outlook

Trent share price witnessed a sharp decline of nearly 9% on July 4, 2025, after the company revealed a weaker revenue growth forecast at its Annual General Meeting (AGM). This announcement prompted domestic brokerage firm Nuvama to downgrade the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” and revise its target price downward. The development sent shockwaves across the market, particularly for investors closely tracking the performance of this Tata Group retail giant.

Trent Share Price Reacts to Slower Growth Forecast

At the AGM, Trent share price took a hit after management projected around 20% revenue growth for the first quarter of FY26. This is a significant slowdown compared to the impressive 35% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the company had achieved from FY20 to FY25. Additionally, this new projection falls short of Trent’s long-standing target of maintaining a 25% CAGR in the upcoming years.

Following the announcement, Trent share price fell to an intraday low of ₹5,652 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), down nearly 8.7%. The reaction from analysts and brokerages was swift, with many raising concerns over the mismatch between the company’s growth potential and its high valuation.

Nuvama Downgrades Trent Share Price Target

In light of the revised growth guidance, Nuvama downgraded Trent share price to a “Hold” rating from its earlier “Buy” recommendation. The brokerage also slashed its price target for the stock from ₹6,627 to ₹5,884, citing concerns over near-term growth headwinds.

According to Nuvama, the downgrade was based on the company’s Q1FY26 forecast and the reduced momentum in its core fashion segment. The brokerage also revised its financial estimates for FY26 and FY27, cutting revenue projections by 5–6% and EBITDA expectations by 9–12%.

Trent Share Price Performance Compared to Broader Market

While Trent share price dropped as much as 10% during early trade on July 4, the broader market remained relatively stable. At the time of Trent’s decline, the BSE Sensex was up 0.09%, trading at 83,318.12. This divergence indicates that the sharp fall in Trent share price was largely company-specific, triggered by concerns about future growth prospects and valuation mismatch.

Current Business Performance Behind Trent Share Price Volatility

In its latest quarterly update, Trent reported a 20% year-on-year increase in standalone revenue, reaching ₹5,061 crore. While this figure indicates ongoing growth, it also confirms the slowdown compared to the prior five-year CAGR.

At the end of the June 2025 quarter, Trent’s store network included:

• 248 Westside stores
• 766 Zudio outlets
• 29 stores under other lifestyle brands

Despite this robust retail presence, the tempered revenue forecast impacted investor sentiment and added pressure on Trent share price.

Morgan Stanley’s View on Trent Share Price Outlook

Interestingly, not all brokerages echoed Nuvama’s cautious stance. Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley maintained its “Overweight” rating on Trent share price, with a revised target of ₹6,359. According to Morgan Stanley, Trent’s long-term growth prospects remain intact, and it expects a 25–30% CAGR over the next five years.

Management, too, reiterated its commitment to long-term expansion and dismissed concerns about competition, emphasizing that India’s organized retail sector has ample room for multiple players.

Analysts’ Consensus on Trent Share Price

Of the 25 analysts covering Trent share price, 18 currently hold a “Buy” recommendation, while four suggest a “Hold” and three maintain a “Sell” rating. The mixed outlook reflects the short-term uncertainty but underlines continued long-term confidence in the stock.

Strategic Expansion Plans to Support Trent Share Price Recovery

Despite the recent dip, Trent remains focused on achieving its ambitious goal of 10x revenue growth over the long term. The company highlighted that its revenue has already doubled since FY23 and aims to continue this momentum by opening 250 more stores across its various retail formats in FY26.

Management also pointed to potential growth from newer segments like:

• Zudio Beauty: Currently in development, expected to scale up rapidly post-stabilization
• Star Bazaar: Positioned for massive expansion in India’s food retail space

While these projects hold promise, their impact on Trent share price will likely unfold over a longer horizon.

Nuvama’s Take on Long-Term Outlook for Trent Share Price

Nuvama acknowledged the company’s execution capabilities and its consistent performance in scaling the business. However, it emphasized that current valuations remain demanding, especially in the backdrop of underwhelming short-term growth.

According to Nuvama, the Trent share price does not currently reflect the near-term slowdown and suggested that the stock needs time to justify its steep valuation.

No Merger Plans for Star Bazaar and BigBasket

In addressing investor concerns about possible overlaps in retail strategy, Trent clarified that there are no plans to merge Star Bazaar with BigBasket. Both formats will continue to operate independently, focusing on different product mixes and pricing strategies.

This clarity helped reassure investors but didn’t prevent the continued pressure on Trent share in the immediate aftermath of the AGM.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Trent Share Price?

The recent dip in Trent share serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between growth projections and market expectations. While the short-term outlook appears cautious, Trent’s long-term strategy, strong retail presence, and expansion into new verticals could provide the necessary momentum for a recovery.

For now, investors may need to closely watch how the company executes its expansion plans, navigates competition, and translates new ventures into revenue growth. As analysts reassess their positions and more quarterly data becomes available, Trent share price is likely to remain under the spotlight.

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